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Abstracts

Theme 1 - Measurement and Observations

Measurement and Observations of urban and regional emissions trajectories using tools such as comprehensive place-based carbon budgets and inventories, sectoral carbon budgets and material flow analysis.

Oral Presentations

Estimating the geographic variability in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation: Method and application

  • Presenting Author: Rob Neff, University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC)

This presentation demonstrates a method for producing spatially explicit estimates of gasoline consumption, and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, within metropolitan areas. A traffic assignment model was applied to commuter origin-destination data, and the results were used to generate GHG emissions map of Philadelphia, PA. The results show that the responsibility for gasoline consumption lies disproportionately with affluent suburb-to-suburb commuters traveling in automobiles. Conversely, poor populations working in the suburbs use public transport despite the poor quality of service.

Thus, consumption of gasoline is linked to Philadelphia's segregation patterns, which often are associated with an urban/suburban split. Nonetheless, the results also identify places that do not fit this broad pattern, suggesting alternative descriptions of city space based on the functioning of coupled human-environment systems rather than the more traditional measures of socioeconomic status and racialized identities. Plans to apply this method to other cities also are discussed.

Eddy covariance measurements of CO2 fluxes from Mexico City

  • Presenting Author: Erik Velasco, Molina Center for Energy and the Environment
  • Co-author: Brian Lamb, Washington State University

Direct measurements of CO2 emissions that include all emissions sources in urban areas are necessary to improve our understanding of the role cities play in global change; in particular mega cities of developing countries. Here we present eddy covariance measurements of CO2 fluxes from two different districts of Mexico City. These measurements considered all CO2 emission sources, even sources hidden under the urban canopy. Fluxes from a densely populated neighborhood were collected during April 2003, and fluxes from a busy district were collected recently in March 2006. The 2003 measurements showed that the urban surface is a net source of CO2. The CO2 flux measurements showed a clear diurnal pattern, with the highest emissions during the morning (1.60 mg m-2s-1), and the lowest emissions during nighttime. The mean daily flux was 0.41 mg m-2 s-1, which is similar to that observed in European and US cities.

Improving the Relevance of Case Studies for Carbon Management

  • Presenting Author: Penelope Canan, University of Central Florida
  • Co-author: Elizabeth Malone, Joint Global Change Research Institute

Due to scale and boundaries issues as well as associated questions of fluid social and material processes and flows, carbon cycle researchers have typically favored highly aggregated data and models that are not very helpful for carbon management. On the other hand are individual place specific case studies with unlikely generalizability. This presentation will review case study approaches (e.g., single deep cases selected for their heuristic value; selecting cases on the desired outcome; selecting cases based on variables-in-common across cases; and the more formal quasi-quantitative case comparative method known as QCR). The approaches will then be compared with an approach that has resulted in the identification of "syndromes" of global change. In both instances we will suggest ways to make the research design produce more management relevance. Relevant literature will include works by Glantz, Meyer, Kasperson et al., Ragin, Abler et al., Lynd and Lynd, and Pescheld-Held et al.

Assessing the Carbon, Energy and Mass Exchanges of lawn ecosystems in an urban area

  • Presenting Author: Ahmed Balogun,Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota
  • Co-author: Joe McFadden, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota

Within any large region there are significant areas in which land cover and land use have been strongly modified by human activities. However, studies involving continuous measurement of CO2 exchange in developed land have begun only recently.

As part of the "Land use and ecosystem-atmosphere carbon, energy and water exchange project" at the University of Minnesota, fluxes of energy, mass and momentum are being measured above and within suburban area in Roseville, Falcon Heights, Minnesota (45 02 'N, 93 12' W, 903 amsl). Eddy correlation systems have been deployed above the canopy at two different levels (80 m and 40m) and a third mobile system at 2.5 m above grass lawns in the surrounding area. This project is focused on understanding the ecological controls on carbon, water, and energy exchange from these landscapes.

Here we present the initial results of latent and sensible heat and carbon dioxide fluxes, over an urban lawn and investigate the dependence of these fluxes on the relevant controlling variables.

The Carbon Capture as it Leaves from You Practice them Agricultural:An Integral Strategy for Producers of Limited Resources

  • Presenting Author: Antonina Galván Fernádez, División de Ciencias Básicas e Ingeniería Universidad Autonóma Metropolitana Unidad Iztapalapa

The aided strategy but for the mitigation of atmospheric carbon, is the capture of this one by the vegetation; for the being it leaves from the biomass synthesis, occurs by seated that the vegetation is the regulating environmental component of the rates of atmospheric carbon. Nevertheless, the processes of carbon capture by vegetation are complex and important fractions are given back to the atmosphere, due to the biological operation of the plant. Against part, the fraction that Integra to the soil in the same plant, is more stable and therefore, but difficult to reincorporar to the air, besides to allow the assimilation of other essential nutrients.

This work presents a proposal of evaluation of carbon capture for the system plant-soil, as it bases for the payment to agriculturists by environmental services, taking into account the state from the parcel and you practice them vegetative under a integralista approach. Concepts of carbon balance are gotten up, storage capacity.

The use of an open space carbon inventory as a tool in urban strategic planning – the Durban case study

  • Presenting Authors: Debra Roberts & Julia Glenday, Ethekwini Municipality

Ethekwini Municipality (Durban) is the first local government in South Africa to research the impacts of climate change on urban planning. As part of its mitigation/adaptation planning, the municipality is currently engaged in the development of a carbon storage inventory for the city's 63,000ha open space system. The open space system contains a broad range of ecosystem types ranging from forest through to wetland. Field sampling of above and below ground carbon pools is being used to estimate carbon densities for these cover types. Degraded, regenerating, or alien species infested areas have been included to assess the potential carbon benefits of rehabilitation. The carbon inventory will be used to model sequestration under different climate and land use scenarios and to fine-tune the future design and management of the open space system. This will ensure that the carbon-storage function of the system is maximized under all future climate change scenarios.

Measurements of trace-gas fluxes and the surface energy budget in the semi-arid urban Salt Lake Valley, Utah, U.S.A.

  • Presenting Author: Eric R. Pardyjak, University of Utah
  • Co-author: Diane E. Pataki, University of California – Irvine
  • Co-author: P. Ramamurthy
  • Co-author: J. Kiran

Over the past three years the Urban Trace-Gas Emission Study (UTES) has provided a unique opportunity for a multidisciplinary team of researchers to begin investigating the behavior of the carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy budgets in the urbanizing Salt Lake Valley. The present work describes findings quantifying important differences in various flux quantities (carbon, water vapor, sensible and latent heat) between two measurements sites that that have been altered by different patterns of urbanization, but are subject to similar large scale external forcing patterns. One of the sites is suburban with well-watered mature trees; the other site is "pre-urban" and is surrounded by non-native grasses, sagebrush, and agricultural fields. Issues specific to semi-arid regions will be discussed and compared to more mesic climate measurements in the literature. In addition, challenges associated with making eddy flux measurements in urban areas will be highlighted.

Evaluation of Mexico City Black Carbon in the Ixta-Popo National Park

  • Presenting Author: Darrel Baumgardner, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico
  • Co-author: Graciela Raga, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

The national park of Ixta-Popo Zoquipan is located 60 km to the southeast of Mexico City and includes the volcanos Popcatépetl and Iztaccíhuatl. A measurement program has been in progress since December, 2005, to measure the properties of particles that are in the air that flows through the 4000 m pass between these two volcanoes. The mass of black carbon is one of the properties derived from the measurements. The preliminary results from the first four months of measurements shows that the particles at this site are clearly coming from Mexico City and that the black carbon mass exceeds 1 ug m3 the majority of the time. This result indicates that the emissions from Mexico City are clearly leaving the Mexico City basin and are being transported to the surrounding regions where their impact, while still under evaluation, may be significant with respect to the ecosystems and local climate changes.

Verification of carbon management measures in mineral soils of the European Union

  • Presenting Author: Vladimir Stolbovoy, Institute for Environment and Sustainability of the Joint Research Centre EC, Italy
  • Co-author: Luca Montanarella
  • Co-author: Nicola Filippi

Verification of carbon management needs measurable, transparent and cost effective method to detect the changes of carbon stock in soils. The Good Practice Guidance (IPCC, 2003) suggests exploring the variability of soil characteristics to define the number of necessary soil samples. Following this, the laboratory cost could be as much as 157 Euro for one tCO2_eqv in average EU soil conditions for cropland. The study introduces a new Area-Frame Randomized Soil Sampling developed for the EU, which combines a composite soil sampling with randomized selection of the sampling sites. This method allows reducing laboratory costs to 2.2 Euro and 6.5 Euro per one tCO2_eqv of sequestered carbon in cropland and pasture respectively. This cost is 0.13 Euro if the area of the cropland field is about 50 ha. The study proposes soil carbon status indicators (e.g. soil specific potentials for carbon sequestration and loss) to establish regional carbon management strategies.

Carbon fluxes associated with hydroelectric projects in the Porce region of Colombia

  • Presenting Author: Carlos Sierra, Oregon State University
  • Co-author: Jorge Del Valle, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellin

The landscape of the Porce region of Colombia has been largely modified during the last decade as a consequence of the development of two large hydroelectric projects. As a result, large areas have been and are planned to be flooded. Also, a vast area surrounding the reservoirs has been bought by project developers for environmental conservation. We studied the effects of these changes in land use on the carbon balance of the landscape. Our estimations showed that the modification of this landscape was responsible for the emission of carbon to the atmosphere in a range between 291 and 400 Gg C. Converting between 4000 and 92000 ha from pastures to forests would be required to compensate carbon emissions. Our estimations suggested that burning of standing biomass would be a better alternative than flooding the organic matter because carbon emissions would be in terms of CO2 instead of CH4.

The Dynamics of Urbanized Territories and Future Scenarios for Carbon Emissions: Multi-scale analysis

  • Presenting Author: Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins, University of Lisbon
  • Co-author: Filipe D. Santos, University of Lisbon
  • Co-author: Yoshiki Yamagata, Climate Change Risk Assessment Project, NIES

A new approach, based on the fact that urban areas (UA) produce 97% of the anthropogenic carbon emissions (CE), is used for the construction of future scenarios for CE. We assume that CE(t) = se(t) × UA[population(t)], where se is a specific (per area unit) emission that can be controlled by different strategies and policies, allowing for further development of the set of sub-models, that describe patterns of the se, and its virtual evolution. As for the dependence of UA on population size, we suggest two models: regression one, based on national demographic statistics, and model based on the gamma-distribution. The separate multi-regional model forecasts the dynamics of national, regional and world population until 2100. In addition, since there is a strong correlation of UA with the night illumination, the usage of extrapolated data registered by satellites DMSP/OLS allows us to construct one more model of the UA dynamics.

Observation and comparison of C-fluxes of cities and peri-urban forests

  • Presenting Author: Beniamino Gioli, IBIMET-CNR
  • Co-author: Riccardo Valentini, DISAFRI - Università della Tuscia

The eddy covariance (EC) technology has been used to measure the C-flux of the central part of the cities of Rome (since 2003) and Firenze (since 2005), in Central Italy. At the same time, EC has also been used to measure the C-flux of two peri-urban forests both dominated by holm oak (Q.ilex). This paper illustrates the results of those combined measurements: in the first part, the quality of urban C-flux measurements is discussed by comparing the measured fluxes with inventorial information on the main C-sources of the cities. The good correlations observed indicate that EC was in fact able to capture and measure, with sufficient accuracy, the C-flux of the city in the tower footprint. In the second part, the positive (upward) urban C-fluxes are compared with the negative (downward) C-fluxes of the two peri-urban forests to evaluate how those forests actually contribute to the mitigation of urban CO2 emissions.

Poster Presentations

Impact of land use and land-use change on CO2 emissions in Mexico

  • Presenting Author: Marcela Olguin, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur
  • Co-author: Ben de Jong, Ecosur, Unidad Villhaernosa
  • Co-author: M. Motolinia, Ecosur, Unidad Villhaernosa
  • Co-author: O. Masera, CIECO-UNAM, Campus Morelia
  • Co-author: C. Anaya, CIECO-UNAM, Campus Morelia
  • Co-author: R. Martínez, CIECO-UNAM, Campus Morelia
  • Co-author: G. Guerrero, CIECO-UNAM, Campus Morelia
  • Co-author: J. Etchevers, Colegio de Postgraduados, Montecillo
  • Co-author: C. Balbontin, Colegio de Postgraduados, Montecillo

One of the main sources of greenhouse gas GHG) emissions in Mexico during the 1990s has been land use and land-use change. Since then various land-use policies have been put in place to counteract the process of deforestation and forest degradation. We carried out an analysis of land-use dynamics between 1993 and 2002 to analyze the impact of the policies and estimated the emissions of CO2 based on available land use maps national forest inventory databases and national forestry statistics. We carried out uncertainty analysis on several of the most important sources of information (i.e. land use maps national forest inventory databases and national forestry statistics). We discuss the major ecological characteristics of Mexico's forests and present the classification we used to analyze the major patterns of land cover change. Finally we discuss different policy options for promoting sustainable forest management and the possible impact on GHG emissions.

CO2 emissions from Mexican soils induced by the land use change in the forest sector

  • Presenting Author: Claudio Balbontin, Colegio de Postgraduados
  • Co-author: Jorge D. Etchevers-Barra, Colegio de Postgraduados
  • Co-author: Fernando Paz

The national inventory of CO2 emissions (greenhouse effect gas) from soils in the land use change and forest sector for the period 1993 and 2002 is analyzed in this paper. The methodology used for this work is the revised Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adapted to the particular conditions of the forest sector of Mexico. The study includes the design of a specialized database of values of soil organic carbon (SOC) in Mexico. Using the forest inventories for the years 1993 and 2002 the change of the surfaces under different land uses is calculated. Finally from the matrix of land use change and IPCC soil units the balance of SOC is calculated. The balance between carbon capture and carbon emission shows that emissions reach 74,317 Kt in the period 1993-2002, that is, 8,257 Kt C annually that represents 30, 277 Kt of CO2 equivalent.

Source Identification and Source Apportionment of Semi-Volatile Organic Compounds in Rural Atmosphere of UK

  • Presenting Author: Siwatt Pongpiajun, Birmingham University and Prince of Songkla University
  • Co-author: Roy Harrison, Birmingham University

Several factors govern the differences in the intensity of air pollutions in both urban and rural air. These factors are also responsible for both the intensity and spatial variation of SVOCs. In this paper, specific Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) ratios, carbon preference index (CPI), Organic Carbon (OC) and Elemental Carbon (EC) will be suggested as being indicative for certain processes that release them into the atmospheric environment. The binary ratio method for PAH source identification, which includes comparing ratios between pairs of frequently found PAHs characteristic of different sources, will be introduced. The comparison of receptor model including chemical mass balance (CMB), principal component analysis (PCA), positive matrix factorization (PMF) and UNMIX will be further discussed. Finally, the results of PCA and UNMIX using data from this study will be illustrated.

Human Induced Land Cover Change and Carbon Emission: Test Case from Southeastern Bangladesh

  • Presenting Author: Mahmudar Rahman, Bangladesh Space research & Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO)

Land-cover and land use in the tropics is rapidly changing in the recent decades and has become one of the major sources of terrestrial carbon emissions. The aim of the study was to assess the amount and dimension of land cover change and carbon emissions and analyze the human interaction in the process. The test site was located in southeastern Bangladesh. Landsat ETM+ and MSS satellite images were used in the study. Land use and land covers were delineated using visual interpretation and classification of remotely sensed data. Carbon inventories were done by ground sampling. Remote sensing spectral information and terrestrial sample-based data were correlated using an improved regression technique. Overlaying the recent and historical carbon database computed the carbon release matrix. The underlying social drivers in the mechanism of land use and land cover change and carbon emission were analyzed using case studies. The result of the study will be quite useful for understanding the interaction and interrelationship of social drivers in the land cover change and carbon emission process.

Estimation of surface energy fluxes in a humid tropical agricultural site, Ile-Ife Nigeria, using the Bowen Ratio and Eddy correlation techniques

  • Presenting Author: Olakunle Oladosu, Federal University of Technology
  • Co-author: Olugbemiga Jegede, Obafemi Awolowo University

Both the Bowen Ratio and Eddy correlation methods have been used to study surface energy balance at a tropical agricultural farmland in Ile-Ife, Nigeria (7o33'N, 4o33'E) during the transition between the dry and wet seasons between February and March 2005. Although there were discrepancies in the magnitudes of the fluxes obtained by both methods, the results obtained for the diurnal variations of the energy fluxes in relation to changing surface condition are satisfactory. For the relatively dry days, the sensible heat flux is comparatively of the same magnitude as the latent heat flux except on a day when it was a little higher but it is less during the wet days. It is therefore obvious from this study that for the tropical weather that evaporation is the next essential factor after radiation in the energy balance due to the prevailing humid conditions in the zone.

Aboveground carbon estimation of a temperate forest in the "Nevado de Toluca" National Park, Mexico, and the role of rural population in the natural resources

  • Presenting Author: Sergio Franco-Maass, Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Agropecuarias – UAEM
  • Co-author: Gabino Navo-Bernal, Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Agropecuarias – UAEM

Carbon credits are seen as an important tool to stop the degradation of the natural areas in Mexico. However, the benefits of such payments are not so obvious. A research project was carried out in order to estimate the aboveground carbon storage in the temperate forest of the Nevado de Toluca National Park. The basic idea was to estimate the potential of the carbon capture and, with this, to predict the behavior of the land cover under different scenarios of land use. If the actual conditions of recovery and degradation are maintained, in 2010 the National Park would have lost 650,000 MgC. Local population generally value nature in terms of concrete products and services which cover their livelihood needs. In the actual circumstances, it is very difficult to have good results with the payment of the environmental service of carbon capture at a regional scale.

Carbon Stocks and Fluxes in Forest Ecosystems of Northwestern Mexico

  • Presenting Author: Jose Navar, CIIDIR-IPN Unidad Durango

This research analyzed carbon stocks and fluxes of 19 forest ejidos of Durango and southern Chihuahua, México. Coniferous forests were present in 17 and tropical dry forests in two ejidos. Alometric equations and IPCC factors transformed inventoried standing volume to carbon stocks in trees. Growth and yield models estimated carbon influxes and timber harvesting volume and operations estimated fluxes out of forests. Carbon stocks of coniferous forests are balanced since mean (± confidence intervals) influxes approached 0.96 Mg ha-1 y-1 (± 0.19) and mean outfluxes were 0.64 Mg ha-1 y-1 (± 0.40). Tropical dry forests are net carbon emitters with mean influx of 0.28 Mg ha-1 y-1 (± 0.20) and mean outflux of 0.43 Mg ha-1 y-1 (± 0.14). Low carbon stocks of temperate forests (60.6 Mg ha-1 ± 12.6) suggest the potential of increasing stocks. Carbon credits and other environmental services may transform forests in net C sinks.

Biogeochemical Changes in Hypersaline Mexican Coastal Lagoon during intense upwelling events

  • Presenting Author: Jose Hernandez-Ayon, Instituto de Investigaciones Oceanologicas, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California

San Quintin Bay (SQB), México, is a hypersaline coastal lagoon where the ocean is the principal external forcing of biogeochemical processes. Measurements of Total CO2 (Ct), Nitrate, chlorophyll, salinity and temperature in surface water were carried out during May-June, when the most intense upwelling events typically occur, and September 2004. Samplings were carried out during spring tides whiting the main channels twelve times. The Ct samples were analyzed using a coulometer system. A high Ct pulse was observed in the mouth only at the end of May but also higher Ct concentrations were measured during the maximum tide fluctuation, and the concentrations decreased near to neap tides. Throughout May-June only the inner part from SQB was a sink of Ct, however, in September the entire bay was a source of Ct.

Characterization of particulate organic carbon from water column in the Gulf of Mexico

  • Presenting Author: Manuel González, UNAM
  • Co-author: Elva Escobar, UNAM

Abstract Stable isotopic carbon analysis (d13CVPDB) was used with the objective to characterize the particulate organic carbon (POC) from Gulf of Mexico. Scanning electronic microscope (SEM) images supplemented this study. Samples were collected at different levels from the abyssal plain, the continental slope and the Campeche canyon to describe the POC exported to deep in a stratified tropical ocean. The POC d13CVPDB ranged (-25.39 to – 20.95‰) within the phytoplankton values (-18.00 to –30.5‰). The Campeche canyon showed significant differences (ANOVA(4, 98) p=0.01) with the other two areas. Differences were recorded between surface and bottom samples. d13CVPDB were 13C depleted with distance from the coast which differs from previous studies were POC is enriched in the bottom. SEM images showed that different groups of phytoplankton dominated in each zone, POC sizes ranged from 5 to 50µm. The isotopic differences were related with the origin and the residence time in the water column.

Benthic-algae uptake governs most of the nutrient retention in an urban stream than in a forest stream

  • Presenting Author: Sulfikar Sulfikar, Makassar State University, Indonesia & Water Studies Center, Monash Unversity, Australia

We compared NH4-N and PO4-P retention in an urban stream and a forest stream near Melbourne, Australia, by short-term NH4-N and PO4-P addition at both streams. We also correlated the retention matrices with the contrasting biophysical and chemical factors (i.e., surface light, water temperature, and algal-biomass, molar ratio of inorganic N and inorganic P) of the two streams. Riparian shading buffers the effect of seasonality of biophysical factors to nutrient retention in the forest stream in contrast to the strong influence of biophysical factors to nutrient retention in the urban stream. Consequently, different processes governed nutrient retention in the forest stream and the urban stream, and autotrophs govern nutrient retention more in the urban stream than in the forest stream. The loss of riparian shading changes the main mechanisms that govern nutrient processing in the stream.

Improvements in turbine exhaust monitoring by emission FTIR and infrared gas imaging technique

  • Presenting Author: Edgar Flores Jardines, UNAM- IMK-IFU
  • Co-author: Klaus Schäfer, IMK-IFU

During the last few years passive infrared spectroscopy has shown to be a useful technique for characterizing the emissions of turbine exhaust gases non-intrusively. In this contribution, some improvements have been made to obtain more precise gas quantification from the acquired high resolution spectra (0.2 cm-1) by updating the line-by-line Multicomponent Air Pollution Software (MAPS) including the real instrumental line shape (ILS) of the spectrometer. Also, an important advantage over previous experiments set-ups consists in the capability of obtaining on-line temperature and CO2 concentration distributions that can be visualized by false colors over an infrared image. Particular measurements on a Roll Royce Gnome 1200 turbine, originally from a Westland Wessex helicopter, installed in a test bed are presented to show the improvements of combining emission FTIR spectroscopy with the scanning infrared gas imaging system (SIGIS) in obtaining a better chemical characterization of the exhaust emissions.

Theme 2 - Patterns, Variability and Modeling at Multiple Scales

Patterns and variability (temporal and spatial) in urban and regional carbon footprints and their influence on future global carbon trajectories; modeling strategies at multiple scales and complexities including techniques and tools that stimulate the factors influencing and causing changes in carbon emissions over time; large scale insights from earth system modeling approaches and new ideas for incorporating urban emissions, transport and other human dimensions into the global models.

Oral Presentations

How to estimate the role of urban areas in regional and global carbon budgets?

  • Presenting Author: Galina Churkina, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
  • Co-author: Kristina Trusilova, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

Urbanization changes the landscape by modifying the natural energy, carbon, and water cycles and may introduce significant additional energy sources (e.g. heat from buildings). The natural cycling of carbon and nutrients between plants and soils is interrupted. In parks and residential yards, leaves are collected and carried outside. To compensate for low soil fertility, the vegetation is fertilized. Highest carbon emissions are also associated with urban areas. Are cities net sources of carbon? Measurements of urban carbon fluxes show that urban ecosystem can switch from source to sink depending on the time of year. To identify the role of urban areas in the global and regional carbon budgets we have to estimate not only carbon emissions from urban fossil fuel consumption but also how much carbon urban ecosys tem can uptake. We discuss possible structure of an urban ecosystem model and how urban ecosystems can be incorporated into Earth System models.

Quantifying the role of urban ecosystems on terrestrial carbon cycling

  • Presenting Author: Cristina Milesi, CSUMB and NASA Ames Research Center

Quantifying the impact of urban development on the regional terrestrial carbon cycle contributes to quantifying the carbon footprint, identifying mitigation opportunities and helps detecting other components of urban biogeochemistry. The impact of urban development on terrestrial carbon dynamics results from two processes. First, land previously forested, pastured or cultivated is replaced by constructed materials such as buildings, roads, parking lots, etc. These areas are removed from the active participation in photosynthesis and respiration. The other process is the replacement of the pre-existing vegetation with characteristic urban vegetation, and the intensification of vegetation management (i.e., irrigation, fertilization, and pruning). Here we present a summary of continental-scale approaches to quantify the impact of urban development on the terrestrial carbon cycle, based on satellite data from the DMSP/OLS, AVHRR, MODIS, and bottom-up and top-down ecosystem modeling approaches. The results show that urban ecosystems of developed countries tend to maintain significantly higher levels of photosynthetic capacity than urban areas of developing nations, but with fluxes varying largely as a function of vegetation management.

Spatial Configuration and the Urban Carbon Footprint

  • Presenting Author: Michael Reilly, Earth Institute, Columbia University

Cities play an increasingly important role in the global carbon cycle but their integration into earth systems models requires analysis at higher resolutions in a more comprehensive spatial framework. The land cover characteristics of urban land influence fundamental biophysical processes such as carbon sequestration and surface albedo, while the spatial configuration of land use within an urban area greatly affects energy consumption for climate control and transportation. Geographic measurements for a number of cities are presented, these measurements are related to each city's overall carbon footprint, and moderating factors in influence of spatial form on environmental performance are noted. This research provides a means of formalizing the differential carbon impact of varying urban form and suggests a means of integrating this information into global carbon and climate models. Only in this manner will cities' fundamental role in achieving a sustainable future be represented in contemporary earth systems science and policy.

Improved Fossil/Industrial CO2 Emissions Modeling for the North American Carbon Program

  • Presenting Author: Kevin Gurney, Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University

The quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions has implications for a wide variety of scientific and policy-related questions. Improvement in inverse-estimated carbon fluxes, country-level carbon budgeting, analysis of regional emissions trading systems, and targeting of observational systems are all important applications better served by improvement in understanding where and when fossil fuel/industrial CO2 is emitted. We have embarked on a research strategy to construct a process-level fossil/industrial CO2 emissions model for North America that will resolve CO2 emissions hourly and at 36 km. Our approach builds off of many decades of air quality monitoring for regulated pollutants such as NOx, VOCs and CO that has been performed by the Environmental Protection Agency in the United States. I will describe this research and provide examples of improved emissions mapping at a few urban locations, comparing and contrasting this approach with the traditional approach using population-proxies.

Integrated Regional Carbon Analysis from Anthropogenic and Biospheric Sources and Sinks: a Colorado Application of a holistic framework to evaluate the Urban-rural interface

  • Presenting Author: Dennis Ojima, Natural Resource Ecology Lab/ Colorado State University
  • Co-author: Kevin Gurney, Purdue University

During the past century, increased land use changes and use of fossil energy sources, primarily coal and oil, have resulted in a rapid increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. In 2004, CO2 levels are estimated to have risen to 375 ppm, nearly 100 pm greater than the pre-industrial levels. In Colorado, we are currently evaluating modeling applications to evaluate urban to rural budgets of sources and sinks associated with carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions. This effort is based on the use of emission models and agro-ecosystem models that can separately estimate fossil fuel emissions, ecosystem sources and sinks from various urban and industrial activities and from land use. The sources are associated with energy, transportation, industry, agriculture and natural resource use. The objective of this analysis is to provide a framework to develop decision-making tools to evaluate various emission reduction practices based on more process and activity level modeling approaches.

Comparative Assessment of Road Transport Emission Inventories in Five Metropolitan Areas of South America

  • Presenting Author: Mauricio Osses, Universidad de Chile
  • Co-author: Laura Dawidowski, National Atomic Energy Commission
  • Co-author: Maria Fatima Andrade, * Co-author: Eduardo Behrentz
  • Co-author: Laura Gallardo

Influence of Development Processes on Present Day Net Emissions. Several key issues, namely methodological approach, spatial and temporal resolution, emission levels, country-specific information and institutional arrangements, concerning the development of inventories of emissions arising from mobile combustion in Bogotá (Colombia), Buenos Aires (Argentina), Lima (Perú), São Paulo (Brazil) and Santiago (Chile) are analyzed. This assessment was undertaken by members of a multidisciplinary network of scientists from six countries in the Americas that has been established in early 2004 under the auspices of the Inter American Institute for Global Change Research to conduct emission estimates from mobile sources in South-American megacities. Current emissions estimates, resident in a unique and coherent database owned by the network, including greenhouse gases, smog precursors and particles (PM10) have been assessed at different spatial and temporal resolution using state of the art tools including in situ measurements of emissions factors (ambient air and on-road tunnel), traffic activity, pollutants concentrations as well as traffic activity models.

On Road Mobile Emissions in Argentina: Driving Variables for Vehicle Number in Spatially Disaggregated

Inventories

  • Presenting Author: Laura Dawidowski, Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica (National Atomic Energy Commission)
  • Co-author: Ariela D'Angiola, Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica
  • Co-author: Dario Gomez, Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica

We explore the following socioeconomic variables to disaggregate the activity data of on-road mobile emission sources: population density, percentage of population with unsatisfied basic needs (UBN), geographic gross product and the United Nations Human Development Index, computed at the provincial level. These variables were inspected against both, the number of vehicles (NV) and the number of vehicles per capita (NVPC) using simple correlation analysis. Two different regional approaches were contemplated: the 23 Argentinean provinces, and the 25 districts composing the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires. The UBN that exhibits a symmetrical distribution and a high correlation with NVPC (r2 = 0.93) has been identified as the most suitable indicator for all regions. The other indicators cannot be used as stand-alone driving variables to infer geographically distributed NV; however it is likely that the combination with other parameters, such as land use, could provide equivalent information to that given by UBN.

Estimation of Bogotá's Mobile Source Emissions Inventory and Analysis of Relevant Variables

  • Presenting Author: Eduardo Behrentz, Universidad de Los Andes
  • Co-author: Liliana Giraldo, Universidad de los Andes
  • Co-author: Mauricio Osses, Universidad de Chile

The mobile source emissions inventory was estimated for the city of Bogotá, Colombia's capital and largest city with more than 7,000,000 people and about 950,000 vehicles. The emissions inventory was estimated using the international vehicle emissions (IVE) model, based on a methodology that has been used and standardized in 11 cities around the world. The protocol that was used included a low-cost field campaign, conducted in January 2005, in which we collected information regarding the vehicle fleet's technology distribution (e.g., presence of emissions control technologies), type of fuel, driving patterns, and vehicle activity. The IVE model was used to calculate different emission scenarios aimed at identifying the main factors determining the city's mobile source emissions inventory. Our results demonstrate the importance of calculating the emissions inventory based on the dynamic vehicle fleet (determined by vehicle counts on the streets) instead of the static vehicle fleet (usually provided by transportation authorities). Transit buses proved to be the most important vehicle category, in terms of their contribution to the city's overall emissions inventory. This vehicle category represents less than 10% of the total fleet and generates more than 50% of the entire fleet's PM10 emissions and about 40% of the fleet's NOx emissions. Bogotá's vehicle fleet emits daily 2,500 tons of CO, 200 tons of VOC, 150 tons of NOx, 7 tons of SOx, and 6 tons of PM10. In addition, these vehicles emit daily 1 ton of N2O, 20 tons of CH4, and 12,500 tons of CO2. Due in part to the high-sulfur diesel available in Bogotá, improving the fuel quality was identified as the single most important measure to reduce particulate matter pollution in the city. Reducing the diesel sulfur content would be associated with a reduction of up to 50% of the PM10 emissions by the vehicle fleet. In the short term, no other studied strategy (reducing the size of the transit buses fleet, use of emissions control technologies, and engine conversions and improvements) would be able to produce such emission reductions.

Natural Resource Management and Carbon Management in the Sahel

  • Presenting Author: Larry Tieszen, U.S.Geological Survey EROS
  • Co-author: Gray Tappan, USGS EROS
  • Co-author: Amadou Dieye

The Sahel is a large area with a substantial population, poor economy, marginal food security, expanding urbanization and high vulnerability to climate change. Remote sensing and field observations quantify the changes in land cover, management, and biomass over specific sites and large spatial areas. In combination with biogeochemical modeling the dynamics of management and climate controls are understood and quantified. This provides a georeferenced documentation of historical changes in carbon stocks and fluxes, an opportunity to evaluate dominant patterns and trends, and the ability to evaluate future regional budgets under various management and climate scenarios. Prototype studies in Senegal show large losses of carbon in all ecoregions except one (afforestation), several management options for mitigation and agricultural sustainability, but very few that are cost effective for poor farmers. Some villages in the Sahel show management that results in enhanced production. Mitigation and economic implications are being evaluated for broader diffusion.

Investigating regional CO2 absorption potential using wood biomass

  • Presenting Author: Tsuguki Kinoshita, National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan
  • Co-author: Keisuke Inoue, The University of Tokyo
  • Co-author: Hiroshi Kagemoto, The University of Tokyo
  • Co-author: Yoshiki Yamagata, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

In Japan, the high price of domestic wood causes a low demand for domestic wood. The lack of forest management causes artificial forests to change into degraded forestland. This change causes a decrease in CO2 absorption. However, profitability may improve with the introduction of carbon credits and increased use of biomass. In this research, the Japanese town of Yusuhara is used as a target for the implementation of a long-term forestry-planning tool, which was developed for this purpose. The tool uses an ecosystem model to calculate the future prospects of forest growth. Both the management costs and future demand for wood biomass energy are taken into consideration. Forestland is divided into artificial forests and conservation forests which maximizes the amount of CO2 that can be absorbed. This case study is started for assessing the effectiveness of regional carbon management options.

Carbon stabilization in urban and urbanizing soils: the effects historical land use

  • Presenting Author: David Lewis, The Pennsylvania State University
  • Co-author: Jason Kaye, The Pennsylvania State University

Soils are carbon (C) reservoirs with uncertain futures. Urbanization will subject soils of variable provenance to disturbance and an altered microclimate, possibly accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) release. Discussions of greenhouse gas emissions must recognize that some soil C is unstable. We tested whether the relative sizes of the stable and labile C pools in urban (Phoenix, USA) soils are influenced by the chronology of land use transition. We compared lands of different history (agrarian vs. unmanaged desert in 1912) and of different transition (unchanged vs. transition to residential). Labile and stable C masses were greatest in residential, intermediate in agrarian, and least in desert soil. Both C pools were 2X greater in residential soil with an agrarian history than in residential soil without. Post-agrarian, residential soil also had the greatest amount of stable C calculated as a proportion of total C. These results may inform "decarbonized" pathways of urban development.

Poster Presentations

Impacts of Urbanization in Europe on the Regional Carbon Fluxes

  • Presenting Author: Kristina Trusilova, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
  • Co-author: Galina Churkina, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

Numerical simulations with the mesoscale weather predicting model MM5 suggested that conversion of natural land cover to an urban one caused reduction in temperature diurnal range and in precipitation over the areas of perturbation. This study addresses the question: how do the changes in diurnal temperature range and precipitation associated with urbanization influence the vegetation growth in Europe? Series of numerical simulations with the Biome-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model were performed to determine how productivity of vegetation responded to urban-caused changes in climate of Europe.

We found that coniferous forests increased their productivity in response to the additional urban heat, but reduced it due to the urban drought. The deciduous broadleaf forests limited by different abiotic factors (water, radiation limitation) reacted differently. The ecosystems situated in dry warm environments were the least sensitive to the urban anomal temperatures and precipitation while the ecosystems in colder and moist climates showed the greatest response.

Characterization of Elemental Composition in Abyssal Surface Sediments in the Gulf of Mexico

  • Presenting Author: Francisco Javier García-Villalobos, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
  • Co-author: Elva Escobar Briones, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Marine sediments represent the largest reservoir of carbon on Earth and an important factor in climate change. Photosynthetic fixation of atmospheric CO2 by terrestrial plants and marine phytoplankton is the main carbon source and can be exported to the benthic boundary layer. A review of values for abyssal sediments in the world ocean suggests a limited knowledge in the deep Gulf of Mexico, and hence attracted our interest to describe its variability both in time and space. The relevance of this analysis is to understand how the deep-sea sediments can work as a reservoir for the carbon and nitrogen cycles, climate change and the chemical balance of elements in the basin. The objective of this investigation is to characterize the organic C and N content of abyssal superficial sediment in the Gulf of Mexico in samples collected at a depth interval of 1025 and 3725 m throughout several cruises.

Long-term land use change and effects on soil carbon content in semiarid grasslands

  • Presenting Author: Tulio Arredondo, IPICyT
  • Co-author: Eduardo Medina-Roldan, IPICyT
  • Co-author: L. Felipe Pineda- Martínez, IPICyT
  • Co-author: Leonardo Hernádez-Azcúnaga, IPICyT
  • Co-author: Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald, IPICyT

Natural grasslands declined dramatically as a consequence of land conversion to rain-fed agriculture, overgrazing, introduction of African forage grass species, and shrub encroachment. All forms of land use change have led to drastic changes in plant species composition, productivity and plant cover. We examined the effect of long-term land use change on the carbon stocks of: pristine grassland (P), heavily grazed grassland (H), reconverted grassland to African grass pasture (E), and shrub encroached grassland (S). Soil samples were excavated at two depths (0-15 cm, 15-30 cm) and two microsites (beneath plants, interspace). We observed a range of soil carbon content between 22 (P) and 9 (E) T/ha. Overall, the E site exhibited the lowest soil carbon accounting for 30% less than P. Both, E and S exhibited highest carbon content on interspaces and allocated carbon preferently at 30 cm depth compared to 15 cm for the P and H communities.

Carbon stocks under different land use change and land cover scenarios: A case study in the watershed "San Miguelito" San Luis Potosí, Mexico

  • Presenting Author: Angélica Jiménez-Aguilar, IPICyT
  • Co-author: Eduardo Medina- Roldán, IPICyT
  • Co-author: L. Felipe Pineda- Martínez, IPICyT
  • Co-author: Leonardo Hernádez-Azcúnaga, IPICyT
  • Co-author: J. Tulio Arredondo, IPICyT
  • Co-author: Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald, IPICyT

Carbon stock (CS) evaluations are necessary for determining changes in different ecosystem C pools in response to land use change. We present field -based measurements of CS for three different land use/land cover types: pine forest, oak forest and secondary grassland in the Sierra San Miguelito, an important watershed close to the 1-million city San Luis Potosi, in the semiarid Central Plateau of Mexico. For the CS estimates, we considered essential regional-scale factors such as topography as well as patch-scale factors such as soil depth that may influence CS. This approach allowed us to extrapolate carbon estimates from plot-based to the watershed level with remote sensing. Overall, soil carbon stocks constituted the largest pools in all LUC types, however converting forests to grasslands for livestock production substantially reduced soil C stocks. These results provide important base-line data for predictions of future human interventions on regional CS.

Urbanization and temperature trend in Abuja Nigeria

  • Presenting Author: Ifeoluwa Adebowale Balogun, Federal University of Technology Akure Nigeria
  • Co-author: Vincent Olanrewaju Ajayi, Federal University of Technology Akure Nigeria

Abuja (090N- 70E) officially replaced Lagos as the capital in December 1991 after 15 years of planning and construction. The city is located in a scenic valley of rolling grasslands in a relatively undeveloped, ethnically neutral area. Government agencies began moving into the new capital in the early 1980s, as residential neighborhoods were being developed in outlying areas. It has been projected that the population of this city would exceed one million early in the 21st century. The development in this new city has a serious implication on its temperature and humidity hence human comfort.

This study compares the changes observed in terms of temperature and humidity in Abuja and neighboring cities, which are not as developed in terms of infrastructures and population growth. The study shows that the temperature of Abuja experienced a sudden increase in 1992 and maximum recorded temperature in 1996 during the massive construction in the federal capital. The neighboring stations of Kaduna, Lokoja, and Minna show an almost constant temperature trend while Abuja displays a sharp index of increase.

Interactions between urbanization along the Gulf of California Coast and vulnerability to changes in the NA monsoon and hurricane activity

  • Presenting Author: Ruth Cerezo-Mota, University of Oxford, AOPP
  • Co-author: Myles Allen, University of Oxford, AOPP

The sea surface temperature (SST) plays an important role in the intensity and triggering of regional convective phenomena, as the North American Monsoon (NAM) in the northwest of Mexico, and southwest of the USA, or as the hurricanes that every year threaten the Caribbean region. Recently, the World Bank Group announced that Mexico is the main source of green house gases in Latin America and the 14th in the world. Understanding the consequences of the SST increases linked with the global warming has become a priority for the national agenda.

With this scope, we are going to estimate the hurricane intensity and its probability following the Emanuel's model and with 200 years data set of HadCM3 coupled model and radiosondes profiles available for the Caribbean region. We also are going to show the first results of the PRECIS regional atmospheric model inside the NAM area with different climate change scenarios.

Theme 3 - Influence and Development Processes on Carbon Emissions

The influence of development processes on present day net emissions (e.g., studies of spatial patterns and densities of development and their impacts on carbon emissions, changes in net emissions or carbon budgets over time, and their association with key development decisions) including examples of estimations of carbon consequences of decisions in various sectors (e.g., transportation infrastructures and systems, population dynamics, lifestyles, technological innovations, manufacturing, forestry, agriculture, bio-energy, heating, and avoided emissions.)

Oral Presentations

The Dynamics of a Carbon-Based Metropolis

  • Presenting Author: Philip Emmi, College of Architecture & Planning, University of Utah
  • Co-author: Craig Forster, College of Architecture & Planning, University of Utah

A system dynamics approach is used to simulate and explore the future of carbon emissions for the Salt Lake City-Ogden, Utah metropolitan area. At the core of the model is a self-reinforcing feedback loop that represents a land-use/transportation dynamic characteristic of first-world cities. Simulation results illustrate how year-2030 carbon emissions might differ from those of baseline projections if the feedback process is dampened by implementing strategies for: (1) enhancing technical efficiencies, (2) improving policies that govern city-building practices, and (3) combining (1) and (2). Simulation results suggest that strategies (1) and (2) produce similar reductions in urban carbon emissions. We use the simulation results to frame the idea that the economic competitiveness of metropolitan regions will be increasingly gauged by their capacity to tame growing carbon emissions. Thus, increasingly, metropolitan regions that reduce their per capita carbon emissions will be better positioned in continental- and global-scale hierarchies of urban place.

Towards an integrated urban assessment framework

  • Presenting Author: Richard Dawson, University of Newcastle (UK)

Almost 50 per cent of the world's population lives in cities, increasing to 60 per cent by 2030. As a result of this, urban emissions will be an increasing driver of global warming. At the same time, urban areas are vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. In turn, these impacts can induce energy-intensive adaptations such as air conditioning, pumped drainage or desalination. The mitigation of these impacts and sustainable options for adaptation in vulnerable cities require integrated strategies. Ultimately, we want to understand more about the effects of climate change on cities, the causes of emissions from urban areas and assess the effectiveness of alternative approaches to mitigation and adaptation. In this presentation I shall introduce the Cities Research Programme of Phase 2 of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (2006-2009) that aims to address some of the challenges above by asking ‘how can cities grow while reducing vulnerability and emissions?' through the development of an integrated urban assessment framework comprising evidence based models that connect urban development decisions, climate impacts and emissions.

Urbanization and Carbon Emissions in Latin America: Lessons Learned from Four Case Studies

  • Presenting Author: Alejeandro Leon, Universidad de Chile
  • Co-author: Patricia Romero, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Mexico
  • Co-author: Enrique Puliafito, Universidad Tecnológica Nacional
  • Co-author: Mariana Conte Grand, Universidad del Cema

Urbanization has occurred at high rates in countries with relatively low per capita incomes. Such is the case of Latin America where cities have grown at an annual rate of 3.5% between 1950 and 2000. This development pattern has strong implications regarding carbon emissions due to their relationship to industrialization, utilization of energy, land, and agricultural production. Our findings derive from the analysis of data gathered in Buenos Aires, Mendoza, Mexico City and Santiago. Some common trajectories of emissions were detected: transportation is the main emitter as urban citizens and freight need to travel long distances. At the same time, rapidly growing urban centers demand food from nearby and distant agricultural facilities; hence cities increase their ecological footprint. Another carbon-related issue is globalization/liberalization: free market economies dominate the in all four cases, implying a low institutional capacity of the State to impose regulations that limit emissions and urban sprawl.

Patterns of Urban Growth and the Carbon Cycle: Experiences from Latin America

  • Presenting Author: Roberto Sanchez, University of California, Riverside

This paper considers recent spatial patterns of urban growth in Mexico City and their impact on carbon emissions. The paper seeks to identify the major drivers of urban growth in this mega city and how those drivers modify the spatial urban space (urban form and urban function). The paper links this analysis to the carbon budget of the city developed by local authorities and considers future perspectives useful to this and other urban areas in Latin America.

Are we missing the point? Urbanization, sustainability and carbon emissions in Latin American cities

  • Presenting Author: Patricia Romero Lankao, The National Institute for the Study of Society and the Environment, NCAR

The common discourse on cities and carbon emissions tends to be dominated by ecological modernization though, focusing on technological approaches a main mechanism to curb carbon emissions (Lee 2006, Myllylä et al 2005). This discourse is also driven by a policy agenda that is often too based on perceptions and precedents drawn from the developed world (Hardoy et al 2004). This paper draws on empirical evidence from four Latin American cities (Santiago de Chile, Mexico City, Mendoza and Buenos Aires Argentina) to critically discuss the usefulness and limitations of both approach and agenda when applied to southern urban contexts. The ultimate purpose is to sketch some components of an alternative research and management agenda.

Influence of carbon pools and emissions derived from land use change process in the Highlands in Central Mexico, for 1986-2000

  • Presenting Author: José Antonio Benjamín Ordóñez-Díaz, Facultad de Ciencias, UNAM
  • Co-author: Bernardus De Jong, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur

This study intends to estimate carbon content in aboveground biomass (AB) litter and soil in ten different land cover-land use classes (LC/LU) in the Highlands in Central Mexico, to understand carbon losses and dynamics by stock and by land conversion process, as a consequence of the human activities influence to increase carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, and its impact in global climate change.

Total carbon estimated in this research, register an interval from 82.7 to 266.9 MgC/ha; based on a detailed analysis of the process of land use change within the Region, we estimate that a total of 10.37 TgC were emitted within the Region in a 14 yr period, and the carbon sequestration reached 10.36 TgC, mostly because as a result of the abandonment of agricultural lands and the recovering of secondary forest. The net carbon flow (emission minus sequestration) in the reached was 14.9 GgC.

Planning for Climate and Carbon Friendly Cities: Challenges in Kampala City Region

  • Presenting Author: Paul Mukwaya Isolo, Department of Geography, Makerere University
  • Co-author: Charles Basalirwa, Department of Geography, Makerere University

As the momentum gains for developing countries to get integrated into the international carbon control regime, the level of success has only been achieved in the developed world. This paper looks at how the Kampala city region can respond to international calls for the reduction of carbon from transportation and urban development and, how the carbon footprint can be used as a lever for a sustainable planning system for the city region? The region exhibits a "grow now and clean up later" development model and with it an increase in vehicle kilometres travelled and carbon emissions is clear. There is no strong carbon management regime to influence carbon stocks and the urban climate. The dilemma facing the city authority is a "mainstreaming overload"; that reflects interplay of institutional, political, economic and social factors to satisfy conflicting goals of development at all levels coupled with other immediate needs facing city residents.

Potential futures for road transportation-related CO2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific

  • Presenting Author: Peter Marcotullio, United Nations University
  • Co-author: Julian Marshall, University of British Columbia

Will future transportation-CO2 emissions per capita in Asia Pacific economies follow historical trends of the now developed world? Evidence to date is inconclusive. A comparison at similar income levels between recent emissions in developing countries and historic emissions in developed countries suggests "tunneling," a trend associated with lower emissions in developing countries than in developed countries. In this investigation, we consider two possible scenarios: (1) the trend towards "tunneling" will continue in the future, or (2) per capita emissions in Asia Pacific developing economies will increase to, or surpass, historic emissions in developed countries at comparable income levels. We examine a number of cultural, geographic, economic, political, and technological factors, and analyze how various determinants have interacted. We outline a further research agenda for fully exploring the relationships between these trends and on transportation CO2 emissions in the region.

40 years of fast industrialization and urban development: the metabolism of Singapore

  • Presenting Author: Niels Schulz, United Nations University, Institute of Advanced Studies

The consumption of energy carriers and resulting CO2 emissions are a central element of urban metabolism. They are one component of overall material flows including water, air, minerals, biomass and the production, consumption and trade of industrial products. This paper uses the example of Singapore for a systemic material and energy flow account of resource inputs and consequential emissions to air, water and soil. The time series approach covers 40 years of fast industrialization and urban development. It addresses the interaction of those flows and changes in production and consumption activities.

The variation in volume and composition of material throughput and their association with growing levels of GDP are to be assessed. Challenges to the definition of system boundaries will be discussed and the urban scale results will be compared with those of larger national scale systems from the literature.

An Assessment of Urban Development Pathways For Delhi Using Emission Trajectories

  • Presenting Author: Chhemendra Sharma, NATCOM PMC, Winrock International India
  • Co-author: A. P. Mitra

Delhi, one of the mega-cities of India, has been studied to estimate the emissions of trace gases including greenhouse gases and particulate matter from both direct as well as embodied sources in order to assess the developmental pathways through which the city is traversing. The city level inventories reveal the complex impacts of various policy actions and practices of different interest groups. For example, the successive master plans have envisaged decongesting Delhi by developing counter magnet towns around Delhi which has created a vast urban sprawl exerting pressure on transport sector and ultimately favoring private mode of transport as preferred option resulting in large vehicle population and consequently in large emissions. Changing socio-economic situation is further exacerbating the situation although counter policy measures are also being employed to mitigate the impacts. The urbanization process is resulting in increasing embodied emissions which are also required to be considered for sustainable development.

Analyzing Globalization as Source of Carbon Dioxide Drives over the Asia-Pacific Region

  • Presenting Author: Penelope Canan for Ioana Oprea, Tsukuba University/NIES-GCP

The impact of Globalization on Carbon Dioxide emissions is hereby analyzed. Three aspects of Globalization (imports, exports and foreign direct investment) have been considered concerning the Asia-Pacific region. Starting from the classic IPAT model and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), we analyzed the level of international penetration and derived the main carbon dioxide drivers in South, Southeast and West Asia for the past thirty years. Our results argue that the Asia-Pacific region is about to pass the EKC tipping point towards carbon dioxide emissions reduction through economic development. Population has different impacts within the region. Urbanization has brought the environment friendly activities only in South-East Asia and foreign direct investment net inflows have proved to be positively correlated with the carbon dioxide emissions in all sub-regions but West Asia. Furthermore trade has brought the scale effect, increasing the economic performance of the entire region but the level of pollution as well.

Poster Presentations

Deforestation and population: The case study of Oaxaca State

  • Presenting Author: María de Jesús Ordóñez-Díaz, Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinaria, UNAM

Population dynamics were revised at the 570 municipalities of the state of Oaxaca, for the last thirty years, evaluating its impact upon the vegetation cover. We try to identify the causes that promote deforestation from the state to municipal level. The regression analysis indicates that the growth in population and its increment in density are not related with the deforestation process. The regression models show that the present cover vegetation depends on the primer existing one. The primer vegetation cover explains 50% of the variance of the cover among 1970 and 1990 and, 80% of the variance among 1980 and the 2000. In both cases, the municipalities' vegetation cover change tendency is identified of average regression to the stocking. In summary the municipalities with smaller vegetation proportion of cover tended to increase their cover, while those that report greater vegetation proportion of cover tended to diminish it.

Theme 4 - Mitigation Opportunities, Constraints and Challenges for Urban and Regional Carbon Management at Multiple Scales

Evaluation of existing management strategies that explicitly or implicitly have an impact on GHG emissions, in terms of the factors explaining their success, constraints and challenges; evaluation and measurement of carbon consequences of decisions in various sectors across rural and urban environments as well as design of regional/urban emission reductions approaches which include and make use of win-win strategies, such as those that aim to reduce net GHG emissions, improve air quality, and human welfare.

Oral Presentations

Local Efforts to Monitor and Mitigate Greenhouse-Gas Emissions

  • Presenting Author: Brent Yarnal, Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, The Pennsylvania State University
  • Co-author: Sarah Knuth, Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, The Pennsylvania State University
  • Co-author: Brandi Nagle, Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, The Pennsylvania State University
  • Co-author: Christopher Steuer, Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, The Pennsylvania State University

This paper summarizes research to establish a process for conducting stakeholder-based GHG inventories and subsequently developing mitigation action plans to reduce local carbon emissions. The paper illustrates the process using two case studies—one for the Pennsylvania State University campus and another for Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. The Pennsylvania State University is a large campus with over 42,000 students and thousands of faculty and staff; Montgomery County is an important suburban county in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. In both cases, the process required working closely with local officials, agency or institutional staff, and other stakeholders to obtain data and to seek their opinions on which mitigation options are physically possible, economically feasible, socially desirable, and the highest priority. Making stakeholders an integral part of the process proved to be crucial to ensuring its success.

Carbon Trading Across the US-Mexican Border

  • Presenting Author: Andrew McAllister for Rick Van Schoik, SCERP

The US-Mexican border, which joins a highly developed but non-Kyoto nation with one rich in human and natural resources, is primed for using market forces to contain both hazardous (criteria) pollutants and greenhouse gases. The talk will focus on the principle, progress to date, and prognosis for significant carbon trading and capture in this interesting and unique border region. Lessons can be translated to other border regions of the world.

Clean Development Mechanism as a mitigation opportunity at urban level: issues and challenges

  • Presenting Author: Mara Regina Mendes, Federal University of Santa Catarina

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of the flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. At the urban level, CDM projects consist mainly in landfill gas recovery. Other waste treatment measures as well as sewage and sludge treatment need more resources, therefore are less commonly developed. Transportation-related projects face difficulty as CDM due to monitoring issues. Besides the financial barriers to develop the projects and issues related to the amount of credits generated by a project, there are many other issues affecting CDM. This study discusses the challenges that are affecting the CDM projects at urban level especially in Latin America and Asia, such as: • slow approval process, especially by the Designed National Authorities; • conflicts between municipalities and project developers over credits; • changes in the methodologies with short adaptation time.

Faced with these and other issues, the CDM is contributing less than its potential to the GHG mitigation.

CDM and urban air pollution: targeting synergies in urban air quality and climate change mitigation

  • Presenting Author: Stefan Bakker, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
  • Co-author: E. J. W. van Sambeek, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands
  • Co-author: N. Iswarayoga, Yayasan Pelangi Indonesia
  • Co-author: J. Todoc, Centre for Energy Environment Resources Development
  • Co-author: L. Leteng, Energy Research Institute in Shandong Academy of Sciences
  • Co-author: A. Dass, Stockholm Environment Institute
  • Co-author: D. Schwela, Stockholm Environment Institute
  • Co-author: M. Varela, CIEMAT, Ministry of Science and Education

Air pollution is a major concern for Asian cities. The sectors causing greenhouse gas emissions and other urban air emissions largely overlap, providing an opportunity to reduce both greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality at the same time through targeted projects and programmes. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol is a potential way to direct carbon financing to air quality measures.

The CURB-AIR project seeks to identify projects and programmes that exploit the synergies in combating urban air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in four major Asian cities (Bangalore, Bangkok, Jakarta and Jinan). Furthermore, the project investigates the opportunities for developing these projects under the CDM. This paper gives an overview of the project, as well as the preliminary findings of a policy review of air quality and climate change measures in these four cities in view of harnessing the co-benefits of air quality management and greenhouse gas emission reductions.

Cross-scale carbon governance challenges in the United States

  • Presenting Author: Lisa Dilling, University of Colorado
  • Co-author: William E. Easterling, Penn State Institutes of the Environment, The Pennsylvania State University
  • Co-author: Kelly Vanderbrink, Penn State Institutes of the Environment,The Pennsylvania State University

Decision makers affect the carbon cycle at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Current management of carbon in the U.S. (and most places in the world) can be characterized as "inadvertent" and often takes place at scales below the national level, primarily at the regional, county and city level. This means that actions decision makers take that affect the carbon cycle (such as energy use, land use and land management) are largely unrelated to carbon concerns. Such a wide patchwork of decision makers across sectors and scales poses difficult challenges for carbon governance. These decision makers also have a wide range of needs for scientific information on carbon management.

This presentation will describe preliminary results examining the scales of decision-making affecting carbon fluxes, and accompanying implications for carbon governance for two U.S. states, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

Opportunities for Abatement of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutant Emissions by Improved Car A/C Systems

  • Presenting Author: Karen Thundiyil, Office of Atmospheric Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
  • Co-author: Samudra Vijay
  • Co-author: Rofolfo Lacy
  • Co-author: Larry Chaney

Car air conditioning (A/C) systems use the largest amount of fuel of all car auxiliary systems. In the United States (US) and European Union (EU), fuel use devoted to car A/C systems is estimated at 4-6% of total fuel use. However, in countries like Mexico where smaller engine vehicles are more prevalent, a higher share of fuel to power a car's A/C system is required compared to larger engine vehicles typical in the US and EU. In this paper, we bring together a thermal comfort model and a vehicle simulator to model A/C fuel consumption used by passenger cars in Mexico City to estimate fuel -consumption that can be attributed to the use of A/C in the vehicles. Further, we estimate fuel savings based on improved A/C characteristics, and estimate impact of fuel savings on greenhouse gas (GHG) and pollutant emissions from cars in Mexico City.

Carbon Management at the Building Level: Technological innovations and policy implications

  • Presenting Author: Luciana Melchert, University of Sao Paulo and Catholic University of Salvador, Brazil

Decarbonization initiatives at urban and regional levels usually focus on issues related to land use and urban transport. In general, the global environmental impacts of building activities are only marginally explored, although buildings have been recognized as large consumers of energy and emitters of carbon dioxide throughout their life cycles. This paper explores the relationship between cities and global environmental change from the perspective of the building sector, and analyzes state-of-the-art technologies and policy measures to render this relationship more sustainable. After an introductory section it provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of buildings on the global environment, focusing on issues related to carbon dioxide emissions. Subsequently it explores the innovative framework of the Dutch sustainable building policy and its practical application in residential and corporate buildings to demonstrate how energy can be used more efficiently by sector, thus contributing to mitigate the global environmental impacts of cities altogether.

Scenarios for Global Decarbonization: Review of Technological Options for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

  • Presenting Author: Frank Ling, Energy and Resources Group, University of California at Berkeley
  • Co-author: Daniel Kammen, Energy and Resources Group, University of California at Berkeley

The reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions can be broadly evaluated through future energy scenarios in four main populations: industrialized nations, developing regions, China, and India. The technological and industrial knowledge needed to address global climate problems and energy demands is already present in two of the most resource intensive sectors: buildings and transportation. In this study, future energy scenarios based on a portfolio of options for the production and consumption of energy in these sectors are evaluated for their impact on decarbonizing the world's economies over the next 50 years. On the supply side, the fossil fuels are gradually replaced by biomass alternatives and electricity is increasingly supplied by renewable resources (wind, solar, and geothermal). For demand, energy efficiency through the deployment of advanced heating, cooling, lighting, and electronic technologies are studied in the buildings sector while vehicle design, biofuels, and advanced hybrid engines are evaluated for the transportation sector.

Integrating Air Quality and Climate Change Mitigation at the Urban level

  • Presenting Author: Ruth Wood, Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia
  • Co-author: Steve Dorling, University of East Anglia

To mitigate climate change, action is required at all levels of governance. Work to improve air quality is already in progress by UK local authorities because of its impact on human health, building materials and visibility. Incorporating decarbonisation into existing local strategies to improve air quality is one way in which progress towards reducing CO2 can be made. Sources of air pollutants and greenhouse gases overlap. Policies to reduce emissions of one set of gases can have an effect on the other. Often this is synergistic, but not always. This work focuses on Norfolk, an area of the UK comprising several urban areas with air quality problems primarily due to transport NO2. The project aims to identify complementary air quality and climate change policies that can be delivered at the urban level through the use of a spatially resolved emissions inventory and scenarios for 2025 and 2050 developed with local stakeholders.

Urban ecology: linking carbon emissions and air quality

  • Presenting Author: Enrique Puliafito, Universidad Tecnológica Nacional / CONICET
  • Co-author: Mariana Conte Grand, Universidad del CEMA

At present, 47% of the world population lives in big urban centers, with an increasing trend for the next decades. High traffic congestion, decreasing air quality, loss of green area or cultural heritage are manifestations of today's urban life. But although many cities face similar processes a wide range of different evolution paths may be identified. This paper explores the urban carbon development of two Argentine cities in terms of greenhouse emissions and air quality from 1980 to present, aiming to find new opportunities in reducing carbon development in urban areas. A top-down approach, i.e. material flow analysis, and a detailed bottom up inventory was developed, based on a geographical information system, allowing a temporal and spatial distribution of the emission patterns. Air quality is calculated by applying atmospheric dispersion to the estimated urban emissions and compared with air quality monitoring.

Urban Heat Island Mitigation as a Global Climate Change Management Strategy

  • Presenting Author: Brian Stone, Georgia Institute of Technology

Accounting for an estimated 78% of global carbon emissions and about 50% of the global population, urbanized regions must figure prominently in any climate change management program. This paper identifies specific urban land development strategies that may be employed to measurably cool cities and reduce carbon emissions through mitigation of the urban heat island effect. Specifically, high resolution thermal infrared images and parcel land use data from a major U.S. metropolitan region (Atlanta, Georgia) are integrated to assess the impact of specific zoning requirements and development practices on surface warming patterns at the level of the individual land parcel. In addition, weather station data from the fifty most populous U.S. metropolitan areas are analyzed to establish the rate of warming "amplification" in large cities. The paper concludes with a discussion of specific land development practices that hold the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions through heat island mitigation.

Constraints and limitations to the application of bio-fuel use at an urban level as a means to reduce carbon emissions

  • Presenting Author: Marcos Daziano, University of Buenos Aires
  • Co-author: Sebastian Senesi, University of Buenos Aires

Bio-fuel appeared as a possible substitute for non-renewable fossil fuel, given the latter's scarce condition; hence the prospect of generating fuel from renewable sources appeared to be the solution. Bio-fuels not only appear to be a sustainable solution for petrol's scarcity, they are also notoriously less pollutant than fossil fuels. Their use causes important reductions in the emissions of several pollutant gasses. Therefore, the application of their use in urban areas, particularly big cities such as Buenos Aires could really help to cope for this city's environmental issues. Argentina consumes each year 12 million cubic metres of diesel fuel (12 billion litres), this represents 48% of total fossil fuels consumed in Argentina, with road freight and passenger services being two of the most consuming sectors. Having Argentina an annual grain production of 85 million tonnes and a world-class crushing cluster, it could produce significantly more bio-fuel than needed.

Potential Impacts of Centralized Biogas Recovery on Municipal Solid Waste Management and CO2 Reduction in Yokohama

  • Presenting Author: Satoshi Ishii, Center for Sustainable Urban Regeneration, The University of Tokyo
  • Co-author: Keisuke Hanaki, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo

The city of Yokohama has over 3.5 million inhabitants and confronts significant challenges of urban environmental management. Among all, both municipal solid waste management and CO2 reduction are considered as issues requiring urgent interventions. In the present study, potential impacts of centralized biogas recovery were analyzed by upgrading two existing sewerage sludge based bio-gasification plants to accept additional organic fraction of municipal solid waste. The study estimated the spatial distribution of organic food waste as well as energy and heat demand at an individual building by the Geographical Information System. The study also identified the potential of CO2 reduction from each aspect, namely waste collection, transport, process, biogas recovery and biogas utilization by evaluating 8 different collection scenarios and an energy supply-demand balance at the inner city scale. The results were discussed in terms of the feasibility of the win-win management and its policy implications for the city of Yokohama.

Building Local Partnerships to Mitigate Climate Change: The Role of Student Research

  • Presenting Author: Sarah Knuth, Penn State University

Local climate change mitigation initiatives increasingly play a vital role in advancing global warming policy in the United States, achieving local greenhouse gas emissions reductions and building public support for more top-down regulation. However, for maximum effectiveness, local mitigation programs will require the participation of a range of private, public, and civil society stakeholders, operating at both local and supra-local scales. This study explores the role that universities, and specifically graduate student researchers, can play in building these vital partnerships, using a student-facilitated climate change mitigation planning process in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. With university involvement, local mitigation planning processes may be flexibly adapted to heighten stakeholder participation. Of particular interest in this case study are the links between managing local greenhouse gases and controlling urban sprawl; sprawl is an important driver of emissions, and partnerships constructed to abate sprawl may be profitably extended to tackle the issue of climate change.

Epistemic networks and multi-interpretive frameworks for strategic C management

  • Presenting Author: Erich Schienke, Pennsylvania State University

Extending from the framework of the GCP's RC6, this paper describes a research integration network for analysis and interpretation to support a Decision Support Network (C-DSN) for C management at multiple scales. Once realized, the C-DSN would become the recognized authority on carbon cycle science, policy, and information, available to public and private sector decision makers, including NGOs and the media. The system described here refers to Regional Carbon Science Centers with an interpretive apparatus known as the Synthesis Hub composed of Disciplinary Centers corresponding to the natural and social system logic of POETICs, which stands for Population, Organizations, Eco-environment, Technology, Institutions, and Culture. Member ship in the interpretive layer would include experts from academic institutions, businesses, governments, and NGOs. Periodic reviews and reports from the C-DSN Synthesis Hub would act as the world's most trustworthy information for enlightened decision-making regarding global and regional carbon cycle.

Priority areas for carbon mitigation projects in the land-use sector of Mexico

  • Presenting Author: Ben de Jong, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur
  • Co-author: Gabriela Guerro, Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, UNAM
  • Co-author: R. Martínez, Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, UNAM
  • Co-author: O. Masera, Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, UNAM
  • Co-author: M. Olguin, Ecosur, Unidad Villahermosa, Mexico
  • Co-author: M. Motolinia, Ecosur, Unidad Villahermosa, Mexico

Carbon storage by forests is among the services for which national and international markets are emerging. These markets have created a lot of expectations among local forest owners so that currently the potential supply greatly exceeds the demand. Therefore it is important to define criteria and indicators that facilitate governments to identify priority areas for specific forestry-related activities (i.e. restoration forestry commercial forestry and forest conservation).

In this study, we developed a set of rules and conditions to identify priority areas within Mexico. Ranking and weighing of environmental and socio-economic variables were used to elaborate maps that identify priorities for commercial plantations, enrichment planting in secondary vegetation, forest conservation, and restoration. Several scenarios were generated to compare and highlight the most promising sites and to propose strategies for these areas. The paper discusses the convenience of spatial decision-support systems in national land-use planning for forestry.

Energy Efficiency and Emissions Reductions in the US-Mexico Border Region: Opportunities and Challenges in the Industrial Sector

  • Presenting Author: Andrew McAllister, San Diego Regional Energy Office
  • Co-author: Manuel Garcia-Lepe, Secretariat of Economic Development, Government of Baja California, Mexico

Industrial manufacturing facilities consume over one-third of total electricity in the U.S.-Mexico border region, where electricity consumption is expected to increase by six percent annually. Encouraging the adoption of energy-efficient technologies is one strategy for reducing the climate impact of the region's explosive growth. We describe a current bi-national effort to optimize industrial energy usage in Baja California. After first discussing critical energy issues facing the border region, we detail the opportunities for cost-effective energy efficiency measures identified in a representative group of large manufacturing facilities. We conclude by suggesting appropriate strategies for effective dissemination of energy-efficient technologies and practices. Substantial investment-grade opportunities exist that will save valuable resources, reduce emissions and lower manufacturing costs. A key challenge will be to develop the human and institutional capacity required to create successful, sector-specific models for energy-efficiency project design, financing and implementation—models that can enable project replication throughout the border region.

Mexico City's Local Climate Action Strategy

  • Presenting Author: Claudia Sheinbaum, Secretariat for the Environment, Mexico City Government
  • Co-author: Oscar Vasquez, Secretariat for the Environment, Mexico City Government

Mexico City elaborated its Local Climate Action Strategy. The target was to establish an institutional framework that promotes the mitigation and capture of greenhouse gases (GHG). As diagnosed it includes an energy generation and consumption inventory; a GHG emissions inventory, in which the IPCC methodology was used, and a trend analysis to 2012 GHG local emissions level. The city's vulnerability factors are identified and valued; their adaptability is analyzed and the measures of adaptation are identified. With these elements were defined strategies, politics and concrete programs for GHG emissions reduction. Lastly, the emissions reduction was quantified by concrete actions that the city develops actually. The highlights: the Solar Water Heating city's Rule, and the sale of Carbon to Spanish Fund for Insurgentes Avenue Bus Rapid Transit Project.

Climate Change and Canadian Cities: Impacts, Measures, Opportunities and Barriers

  • Presenting Author: Govinda Timilsina, Canadian Energy Research Institute

This paper presents possible long-term effects of climate change and mitigation measures on Calgary, one of the rapidly growing cities in Canada. Climate change would affect Calgary both positively and negatively. Positive impacts are related to increased outdoor recreation, less snow removal, lower energy consumption for heating and higher agricultural production. Negative impacts include, among others, reduced quality and quantity of water supply; increased vector born and parasitic diseases, more waste with less water to clean it. Our study shows that negative effects could outweigh positive ones. Climate change mitigation measures would provide benefits such as improvement in local air quality, energy efficiency and public transportation system. On the other hand, since the Calgary economy depends on oil and gas production activities, the economy could suffer as climate change mitigation measures and policies could negatively influence oil and gas production activities in Alberta.

Long Term Planning for GHG Reduction Targets in Urban Transport Sector in India – A Study on Two Mega Cities

  • Presenting Author: Sudhakar Yedla, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR)

This paper addresses the technical and economical feasibility of transportation alternatives for the two case study cities namely Delhi and Mumbai. This study uses projected travel and energy demands and pollutant emissions from the previous section of this special issue to carry out the energy saving potential and emission control potential of various alternative options and find optimal mix of vehicular fleet in order to meet the future demands with various emissions constraints.

Based on characteristics of the transport system in place, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for buses and cars, shift of 2-stroke 2-wheelers to 4-stroke, and BOV buses were selected as potential alternatives for Delhi and CNG buses and cars, shift of 4-stroke 2-wheelers to 4-stroke, and CNG and battery operated (BOV) 3-wheelers for the case of Mumbai. All the alternative options in both the case study cities were subjected to environmental friendliness and economic viability test in terms of emissions reduction potential and life cycle operating cost, respectively. Emission reduction potential and life cycle operating costs were used in long term planning of transport system (20 years) in Delhi and Mumbai using a multi-constrained linear optimization model.

Carbon reduction constraints in Delhi, resulted in reduced use of diesel cars with travel demand equally catered by petrol and CNG car. Cars were found to be targeted more than buses for emission mitigation. The changes in vehicular mix for Delhi were observed in later phase of the time horizon where as in Mumbai it was found to be happening from the initial phase of the time horizon. A shift from D-buses to CNG buses was observed in Mumbai. Marginal CO2 abatement cost in Delhi was found to be double the cost in Mumbai.

A challenge for carbon emission reduction in Ulaanbaatar City

  • Presenting Author: Togtoh Chuluun, National University of Mongolia
  • Co-author: Altanbagana Myagmarsuren, Ministry of Construction and Urban Development, Mongolia

Ulaanbaatar is the coldest capital city in the world. 40% of Mongolia's population lives in the capital city and it increased by about 40% since transition to democracy and market economy in 1990 mainly due to in migration from rural areas. 42% of the Ger suburban area households are poor. 7.4 tons of carbon dioxide per capita is emitted alone from coal burning in the city, which is about twice as high as the world average. The Ger districts contribute up to 90% of city's air pollution. Carbon Monoxide, Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrigon Dioxide in the atmosphere exceed 2-5 times the permitted levels during the winter. A primary source of children's death in UB is respiratory diseases. 78% of children have one of the respiratory symptoms and there was high prevalence (19%) for bronchitis among them. Poverty constrains efficient heating infrastructure development.

The City of Guayaquil and its carbon management opportunities

  • Presenting Author: Mercy Borbor-Cordova, Municipality of Guayaquil

Guayaquil is the largest city in Ecuador with a population of 2.8 million, an annual population growth rate of 2.6% and an annual urban expansion rate of 6%. This tropical city faces the challenge of reducing urban and regional carbon footprints where rapid urbanization has led to urban sprawl, congestion, and great increases in green house gas emissions. The city government of Guayaquil has adopted an innovative and integrative carbon management program which implements clean technology urban projects to obtain economic benefits from the carbon trading system. These projects include a Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT-Metrovia) accepted by the World Bank as a GEF funded project, methane capture from the city landfill, an Ethanol pilot project in the region. In addition a strong framework of science and integrative research is being applied in the development of an Air Management Plan that aims to improve air quality and human welfare.

Predicting land-use response to carbon sequestration incentives in New Zealand

  • Presenting Author: Jason Funk, Stanford University

In addressing land management behavior and land-use decisions at landscape and regional scales, I combine geographic analysis, ethnographic research, and pilot studies of behavior modification. These approaches are used to predict changes in land use with policy incentives for carbon sequestration. Each analysis supports an agent-based simulation model of indigenous and non-indigenous lands in New Zealand. The model explores combined effects of incentives for carbon sequestration and biodiversity on landowner decision-making.

The model is set within a geographic information system, driven by spatially explicit biophysical information. This data is incorporated into a parcel-level financial model of potential returns from forest regeneration. The output of the financial model feeds into the agent-based decision model, parameterized by econometric analysis and field-based ethnographic research on decision processes. The result is a model capable of simulating landscape-level changes in response to policy incentives, accounting for the different biophysical, economic, and institutional conditions faced by landowners.

Poster Presentations

Community forests and Clean Development Mechanism Implementation in Cameroon: the breadth of national policy expedience.

  • Presenting Author: Peter Akong Minang, International Institute for Geo-Information Sciences and Earth Observation (ITC)

The development of national policies relevant for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project uptake and implementation has received little attention. In this paper we examine the compatibility between forestry and related policy provisions in Cameroon and the CDM provisions for Land Use and Land Use Change Forestry (LULUCF). Policy instruments relevant for the implementation of CDM criteria such as additionality, leakage, development impact etc. are identified and the likelihood that they can be implemented analysed, using Contextual Interaction Theory from policy sciences. Constraining issues and supportive policy dimensions for implementation are highlighted and discussed. Good opportunities for CDM project development exist in community forestry. However, national policy in Cameroon needs to adopt a pro-active approach for biosphere carbon management, engaging in institutional development, project development support and providing adequate regulatory frameworks to enhance sustainable development through CDM projects. The need for CDM/Kyoto capacity building support for proactive national and local policy development is highlighted.

The Dahlem Desertification Paradigm - an emerging tool for holistic C management in dry lands

  • Presenting Author: Elisabeth Huber-Sannwald, Instituto Potosino de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica
  • Co-author: Monica Ribeiro Palacios, Instituto Potosino de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica
  • Co-author: J. Garcia de Alva V., Instituto Potosino de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica
  • Co-author: T. Arredondo, Duke University
  • Co-author: J. F. Reynolds, Duke University

Land degradation—including soil erosion, declines in soil fertility, etc.—is a major environmental problem in global dry lands. One of its main impacts is on local and global biogeochemical cycles. We are investigating biogeochemical processes of land degradation in México, one of the most severely degraded countries in Latin America, using the Dahlem Desertification Paradigm (DDP). The DDP is a new synthetic framework that requires the simultaneous identification of biophysical and socioeconomic processes underlying desertification at multiple spatiotemporal scales. We applied the DDP to a regional landscape where the combined effects of deforestation, livestock production, rain-fed agriculture and decades of drought have led to a complex suite of factors affecting regional carbon cycles. We highlight the DDP as a tool for elucidating carbon cycle dynamics as a function of interactions between ‘slow' biophysical x socioeconomic variables. We present a conceptual model of a holistic, multi-criteria, adaptive management plan to restore the regional carbon cycle.

Development of a Local Renewable Energy Planning as path to a Biodiesel Implementation Plan

  • Displaying Author: Sandrine Pereira, RGESD - Research Group on Energy and Sustainable Development
  • Co-author: Marcos Teixeira, Research Group on Energy and Sustainable Development

This paper describes the methodology that made it possible for the Almada Municipality in Portugal to develop an Action Plan to develop its renewable energy resources. The methodology includes: list of energy assets, definition of local priorities, possible technologies and multiple stakeholder risk assessment, forming the base for the development of an Action Plan, focused in biodiesel from used oils. The results pointed out that 1357 tons/year of biodiesel can be produced at Almada municipal level (associated market of 451916 €/year) and 6746 tons/year at Setúbal regional level (representing a market of 2245949 €/year), leading to 3112 ton/year the CO2 emissions reductions at the municipal level and 15468 ton/year at regional level. The Action Plan also provides a path to achieve the goals of the Directive 2003/30/EC on Biofuels and emissions reduction at the country level.

Carbon Management Opportunities and Barriers in Kathmandu Valley

  • Displaying Author: Anil Raut, Winrock International Nepal

Major sources of local air pollution and GHG in the Kathmandu valley are vehicles and industries; mainly brick kilns. Due to the air pollution problem, polluting brick kilns are now shifting towards cleaner ones that are energy efficient and reduce GHG emissions alongside local air pollution. However, higher investments, lower returns, lack of awareness and capacity are the major factors inhibiting brick entrepreneurs from shifting to the new technology. Converting an old technology brick kiln to new technology reduces 858 tons of CO2 annually. Non-polluting electric vehicles plying in the valley also reduce GHG emission and there is scope to further promote them. Besides, there is also possibility to implement government policy to blend 10% ethanol into gasoline that has still not been materialized. As the ethanol extracted from sugarcane is considered 92% carbon neutral; it can help reduce GHG. Blending 10% ethanol into gasoline can reduce 15,000 CO2 per year.

Developing and testing air conditioning and lighting technologies to reduce CO2 emissions in the commercial sector

  • Displaying Author: Yukiko Yoshida, National Institute for Environmental Studies
  • Co-author: Takashi Inoue, Tokyo University of Science
  • Co-author: Yasumi Fujinuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies
  • Co-author: Kasayuki Kamimura, Yamatake Group
  • Co-author: Yasuo Utsumi, Miyagi National college of Technology
  • Co-author: Gen Inoue, National Institute for Environmental Studies

The Climate Change Research Hall (completed in 2001) at the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan was constructed according to the latest sustainable environment designs. In order to evaluate the facilities to reduce energy consumption in this building, we collected data on variables such as energy consumption, air-conditioning performance, and the occupants' perceptions of the environment. This facility is used to develop and test automatic air-conditioning and lighting systems to allow both a comfortable work environment and a reduction in energy consumption. We found that the use of an automatic lighting control system resulted in an energy reduction of approximately 30%. Various attempts to reduce the energy consumption from air-conditioning were evaluated, and we found that a control system that is unique to individual office buildings can be created after such evaluations. The energy reduction techniques for air-conditioning that were developed can be used to realize a next generation lifestyle that allows coexistence with nature.

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